A New Model of Clinical Judgment

David J. Bender (Ph.D., 1977)

Thesis directed by Professor Leo F. Droppleman, University of Tennessee

Previous research on the topic of clinical judgment was discussed, including representational models and the results of clinical judgment research which has employed these models. The most often used model, called the Prediction Model (Meehl, 1954) was compared with a new model designated the Decision and Expectation Feedback Model. Empirical expectations implied by the two models were discussed and the following hypotheses were tested: (1) clinicians will be less surprised than non-clinicians that persons engage in behaviors they actually engage in; (2) clinicians will be less surprised than non-clinicians that persons engage in behaviors that are alternatives to their actual behavior; (3) clinicians will not be less surprised than non-clinicians that persons engaged in behaviors they generally engage in; and (4) clinicians and non-clinicians will predict behavior at the same rate of accuracy. All hypotheses were supported by the data analyses. Implications of these findings for the topic of clinical judgment were discussed as well as suggested additional research. [80 pp.]